Upper Midwest: the season ahead
The western Great Lakes and the upper Mississippi. Here is what NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favours for the months ahead, and what it means measured against the normals where you actually live.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued 16 July 2026.
The lean
| Period | Measure | What CPC favours |
|---|---|---|
| August to October 2026 | Temperature | equal chances of above, near, or below normal CPC places an area of equal chances over the north-central US extending toward the Central Plains. |
| August to October 2026 | Precipitation | 33 to 40% chance of below-normal Below-normal precipitation is indicated for parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Temperature | leaning above-normal The winter pattern favours above-normal temperatures across the northern tier. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Precipitation | leaning below-normal Below-normal precipitation shifts toward centres over the north-central CONUS and the Great Lakes as the outlooks progress. |
What normal looks like here
The lean above is a tilt applied to these numbers, so they are worth knowing first. Across the 280 reporting stations the Almanac holds in the Upper Midwest (IA, MI, MN, WI), over the thirty-year normal period:
- Median first fall frost
- October 4
- Median frost-free days
- 151
- Regional fall mean
- 58.6 F
- Regional winter mean
- 19.0 F
A regional median hides a great deal. IA, MI, MN, WI spans hundreds of miles and a wide spread of elevation, and a single station can sit weeks either side of these dates. Set your place below to replace the regional figures with your own.
Against your own normals
A regional lean only becomes useful next to the place you actually live. Set your place and this section will show your station's normal fall and winter temperatures and your normal first frost, with the lean above applied to them.
What this does not mean
Every figure above is a probability across three equally sized buckets: above normal, near normal, below normal. The winter temperature line reads leaning above-normal, and that is a tilt in the odds, not a description of what will happen. The other outcomes remain firmly on the table, and a season that finishes near its average can still contain the worst week in a decade.
If you want the reasoning behind the tilt this year, read what a very strong El Nino does and does not mean.
What is worth doing
These are sized off normals and a margin, which is the right way to plan regardless of a seasonal lean.
- Frost dates, the fixed points your fall actually turns on.
- Firewood, sized for a normal heating season.
- Ice melt, for the storms an average winter still brings.
- Heat pump sizing, which depends on your design temperature, not this year's outlook.
- Winter hay supply, if you are carrying livestock through.
- Growing degree days, to track the season you are actually getting.