Northeast: the season ahead
New England, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic. Here is what NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favours for the months ahead, and what it means measured against the normals where you actually live.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued 16 July 2026.
The lean
| Period | Measure | What CPC favours |
|---|---|---|
| August to October 2026 | Temperature | 33 to 40% chance of above-normal Part of the broad area of above-normal temperatures CPC places over the West, South and East. |
| August to October 2026 | Precipitation | equal chances of above, near, or below normal CPC identifies no favoured precipitation category here for the fall period. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Temperature | leaning above-normal By winter the temperature pattern is dominated by above-normal probabilities over the west, north and east rather than the southern tier. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Precipitation | equal chances of above, near, or below normal The winter signal concentrates on the southern tier and the Northwest, leaving the Northeast without a favoured category. |
What normal looks like here
The lean above is a tilt applied to these numbers, so they are worth knowing first. Across the 240 reporting stations the Almanac holds in the Northeast (CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT), over the thirty-year normal period:
- Median first fall frost
- October 11
- Median frost-free days
- 160
- Regional fall mean
- 60.5 F
- Regional winter mean
- 26.6 F
A regional median hides a great deal. CT, DE, ME, MD, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT spans hundreds of miles and a wide spread of elevation, and a single station can sit weeks either side of these dates. Set your place below to replace the regional figures with your own.
Against your own normals
A regional lean only becomes useful next to the place you actually live. Set your place and this section will show your station's normal fall and winter temperatures and your normal first frost, with the lean above applied to them.
What this does not mean
Every figure above is a probability across three equally sized buckets: above normal, near normal, below normal. The winter temperature line reads leaning above-normal, and that is a tilt in the odds, not a description of what will happen. The other outcomes remain firmly on the table, and a season that finishes near its average can still contain the worst week in a decade.
If you want the reasoning behind the tilt this year, read what a very strong El Nino does and does not mean.
What is worth doing
These are sized off normals and a margin, which is the right way to plan regardless of a seasonal lean.
- Frost dates, the fixed points your fall actually turns on.
- Firewood, sized for a normal heating season.
- Ice melt, for the storms an average winter still brings.
- Heat pump sizing, which depends on your design temperature, not this year's outlook.
- Winter hay supply, if you are carrying livestock through.
- Growing degree days, to track the season you are actually getting.