The seasonal outlook

We do not forecast the weather. We read the forecast that already exists, made by the people whose job it is, and put it next to the thirty-year normals for your own place so the numbers mean something.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued 17 September 2026. CPC reissues its ninety-day outlooks once a month, near mid-month. The fall outlook is October to December (OND); winter is December to February (DJF), so the three-month periods overlap in December.

Where the season stands

CPC reports that El Nino conditions are present and strengthening. Its discussion gives a 75% chance that OND meets its threshold for a historic event, and greater than 90% oddsof a very strong event during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. CPC says impacts consistent with El Nino are more likely, but not guaranteed.

That matters because El Nino reliably tilts the odds across North America. It does not script a winter. What a very strong El Nino does and does not meanis worth five minutes before you read any seasonal forecast this year, ours included.

How to read a seasonal outlook

A seasonal outlook is not a forecast of what will happen. It is a statement about which of three buckets the season is most likely to land in: above normal, near normal, or below normal, each of which covers a third of the historical record.

• A 40% lean toward above-normal leaves 60% on everything else. The favoured category is favoured, not settled.
• Equal chances is a real answer. When CPC says equal chances, it is not hedging. It is reporting that no category is favoured, which is genuine information.
• Normal is a moving target. These categories are defined against the current thirty-year normals, not against the climate your grandparents planned around.
• A seasonal average hides the extremes. A winter can average mild and still deliver the cold snap that splits your pipes.

Your region

NOAA divides the contiguous states into nine climate regions. Pick yours: each page carries a broad reading of the fall and winter map patterns for temperature and precipitation, what it means against your own station's normals, and what is worth doing about it.

• Northeast New England, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.

• Upper Midwest The western Great Lakes and the upper Mississippi.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

• Ohio Valley The central states, from the Ohio River to the Tennessee Valley.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

• Southeast The Atlantic and eastern Gulf coasts.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.

• Northern Rockies and Plains The northern high plains and the northern Rockies.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

• South The southern plains and the lower Mississippi.

  Fall: mixed categories across this broad region temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.

• Southwest The desert Southwest and the Colorado Plateau.

  Fall: mixed categories across this broad region temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

• Northwest The Pacific Northwest and the northern Great Basin.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

• West California and the southern Great Basin.

  Fall: leaning above-normal temperatures. Winter: mixed categories across this broad region precipitation.

The CPC maps are the authority for local boundaries:OND temperature,OND precipitation,DJF temperature, andDJF precipitation.

Why we publish this the way we do

Almanacs have made long-range weather predictions for two centuries, usually by a method the publisher declines to describe. We are not going to do that. Every probability on these pages comes from the Climate Prediction Center, carries the date it was issued, and links back to the original. If CPC changes its mind next month, so will we, and you will be able to see that we did.

The same rule governs every other number on this site. See how the Almanac computes its dates.