The seasonal outlook
We do not forecast the weather. We read the forecast that already exists, made by the people whose job it is, and put it next to the thirty-year normals for your own place so the numbers mean something.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued 16 July 2026. CPC reissues its ninety-day outlooks once a month, near mid-month.
Where the season stands
The Climate Prediction Center has an El Nino Advisory in effect. El Nino is present, and CPC puts an 81% chance on the event being very strong during October to December 2026, easing to 75% through November to January. There is a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027.
That matters because El Nino reliably tilts the odds across North America. It does not script a winter. What a very strong El Nino does and does not mean is worth five minutes before you read any seasonal forecast this year, ours included.
How to read a seasonal outlook
A seasonal outlook is not a forecast of what will happen. It is a statement about which of three buckets the season is most likely to land in: above normal, near normal, or below normal, each of which covers a third of the historical record.
- A 40% lean toward above-normal leaves 60% on everything else. The favoured category is favoured, not settled.
- Equal chances is a real answer. When CPC says equal chances, it is not hedging. It is reporting that no category is favoured, which is genuine information.
- Normal is a moving target. These categories are defined against the current thirty-year normals, not against the climate your grandparents planned around.
- A seasonal average hides the extremes. A winter can average mild and still deliver the cold snap that splits your pipes.
Your region
NOAA divides the contiguous states into nine climate regions. Pick yours: each page carries the fall and winter lean for temperature and precipitation, what it means against your own station's normals, and what is worth doing about it.
- Northeast New England, New York, and the Mid-Atlantic.
Fall: 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation.
- Upper Midwest The western Great Lakes and the upper Mississippi.
Fall: equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures. Winter: leaning below-normal precipitation.
- Ohio Valley The central states, from the Ohio River to the Tennessee Valley.
Fall: 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: equal chances of above, near, or below normal precipitation.
- Southeast The Atlantic and eastern Gulf coasts.
Fall: 40 to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.
- Northern Rockies and Plains The northern high plains and the northern Rockies.
Fall: equal chances of above, near, or below normal temperatures. Winter: leaning below-normal precipitation.
- South The southern plains and the lower Mississippi.
Fall: 40 to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.
- Southwest The desert Southwest and the Colorado Plateau.
Fall: 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.
- Northwest The Pacific Northwest and the northern Great Basin.
Fall: 40 to 50% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning below-normal precipitation.
- West California and the southern Great Basin.
Fall: 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures. Winter: leaning above-normal precipitation.
Why we publish this the way we do
Almanacs have made long-range weather predictions for two centuries, usually by a method the publisher declines to describe. We are not going to do that. Every probability on these pages comes from the Climate Prediction Center, carries the date it was issued, and links back to the original. If CPC changes its mind next month, so will we, and you will be able to see that we did.
The same rule governs every other number on this site. See how the Almanac computes its dates.