Southwest: the season ahead
The desert Southwest and the Colorado Plateau. Here is what NOAA's Climate Prediction Center favours for the overlapping OND and DJF periods, and what those map patterns mean measured against the normals where you actually live.
Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Prognostic Discussion for Long-Lead Seasonal Outlooks, issued 17 September 2026.
Broad map reading
| Period | Measure | What CPC favours |
|---|---|---|
| October to December 2026 | Temperature | mixed categories across this broad region The western warm tilt reaches this broad region, but the equal-chances area crosses parts of the southern Rockies. |
| October to December 2026 | Precipitation | mixed categories across this broad region The wet tilt spans the Four Corners and nearby areas, but its boundary crosses this broad region. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Temperature | equal chances of above, near, or below normal The equal-chances area covers much of the Southwest; the map shows warmer odds near some regional edges. |
| December 2026 to February 2027 | Precipitation | mixed categories across this broad region The southern and western wet signal reaches parts of the Southwest; other areas have a different category. |
These site regions are broad navigation areas, not CPC forecast polygons, and the map categories can cross a region. This summary has no region-level probability number; open CPC's maps for the category and probability at a specific location:OND temperature,OND precipitation,DJF temperature,DJF precipitation. “Mixed” means different categories appear within the same site region; “equal chances” is reserved for CPC map areas where no category is favoured.
What normal looks like here
These station climate normals are local context, not a forecast calculation. CPC's probabilities refer to the categories on its maps; this broad site region does not produce a station-specific probability. Across the 280 reporting stations the Almanac holds in the Southwest (AZ, CO, NM, UT), over the thirty-year normal period:
- Median first fall frost
- October 9
- Median frost-free days
- 154
- Regional fall mean
- 42.7 F
- Regional winter mean
- 33.9 F
A regional median hides a great deal. AZ, CO, NM, UT spans hundreds of miles and a wide spread of elevation, and a single station can sit weeks either side of these dates. Set your place below to replace the regional figures with your own.
Against your own normals
The broad regional reading only becomes useful next to the place you actually live.Set your place and this section will show your station's normal fall and winter temperatures and your normal first frost, so you can compare the climate context with the CPC map categories above.
What this does not mean
Every figure above is a probability across three equally sized buckets: above normal, near normal, below normal. The winter temperature line reads equal chances of above, near, or below normal, and that is a tilt in the odds, not a description of what will happen. The other outcomes remain firmly on the table, and a season that finishes near its average can still contain the worst week in a decade.
If you want the reasoning behind the tilt this year, read what a very strong El Nino does and does not mean.
What is worth doing
These are sized off normals and a margin, which is the right way to plan regardless of a seasonal lean.
- Frost dates, the fixed points your fall actually turns on.
- Firewood, sized for a normal heating season.
- Ice melt, for the storms an average winter still brings.
- Heat pump sizing, which depends on your design temperature, not this year's outlook.
- Winter hay supply, if you are carrying livestock through.
- Growing degree days, to track the season you are actually getting.